Russian Market Weekly

Russian equities rose 0.76% in rouble terms last week, despite some twists and turns in the market on the back of international news. Russian stocks declined 3% early in the week after ratings agency S&P revised lower its US credit outlook to negative. Other global markets reacted in much the same way to the news. However, there was a strong recovery the following day in Russia and other major markets. Local news was largely supportive of Russian equities.

The recovery in consumer demand remains strong. According to Rosstat, retail sales in Russia rose by 4.38% YoY in March, which was distinctly above the market consensus of 3.4% (Bloomberg). The previously announced retail sales growth result for February was also revised upwards – from 3.3% YoY to 5.8% YoY. Consumption growth in March was supported by the drop in unemployment to 7.1% from 7.6% in February.

俄國金融業受惠油價升

早前日本央行為紓緩海嘯對經濟的影響，大舉增加貨幣供應，短短一兩周向銀行注資逾4000億美元，比美國的次輪量寬(QE2)更勁更狠。就此筆者曾在本欄表示，日央行「大印銀紙」將會接力美國的QE2，令全球資金持續氾濫，這對原材料價格是十分有利的。結果原材料價格從日本海嘯後的低位大幅攀升，能源及礦業基金亦水漲船高，當中礦業基金年初至今的表現，由最多跌10%，轉為上升6%左右，反彈力之勁令人咋舌。


能源礦業基金中長線持有

執筆時歐洲央行剛加息0.25厘，但另一邊廂，美國聯儲局似乎未有就加息達成共識。主席伯南克指，當地通脹上升僅屬暫時性質，極力淡化通脹對當地經濟的威脅，與近日多位地區聯儲銀行行長的「鷹派」言論形成強烈對比。在這情況下，美國上半年加息的機會相信不大，即使下半年加息，幅度料會溫和。因此筆者仍然相信，今年市場流動性仍會十分充裕，能源及礦業基金可作中長線持有。

原材料當中，石油今年表現尤其突出，布蘭特期油年初至今升達三成。油價急升吸引人們買入能源基金外，亦會買入俄羅斯基金。的確俄國基金今年的升幅平均有10%，絕不讓能源基金專美。不過讀者勿以為，油價上升只惠及俄國能源股，其實銀行及內需股也是受惠者。事實上，俄羅斯政府對石油的稅收極重，若每桶石油售價高於30美元，便開始徵稅，生產商只能賺取市價與成本價之間差價的一成作為利潤，所以，油價上升有利能源股，惟非想像中大。

然而徵重稅並非只肥了政府，俄國政府向油公司徵重稅後，會把資金發展其他產業，令經濟更健康發展。因此，油價上升對俄國整體經濟發展是十分正面的。

筆者對油價長線樂觀，相信油價趨升可續刺激俄國經濟、加上今年俄國有望加入世界貿易組織(WTO)，這可吸引更多資金流入，有利當地金融股。